Has mortality due to other causes increased during the Covid-19 pandemic? Early evidence from England and Wales

Sotiris Vandoros

Almost 2 million covid-19 cases have been reported globally, leading to over 125,000 deaths. In the United Kingdom, the death toll has reached 12,000, while almost 100,000 people have been diagnosed with the virus. 1 The novel coronavirus is directly claiming lives, but the whole unprecedented situation and the lockdown imposed in the UK and other countries might be triggering other effects. People with other, unrelated health conditions may be reluctant to visit their GP or a hospital in order to avoid the risk of contracting the virus.2 Furthermore, to increase capacity for the overstretched NHS, routine operations have been postponed.3 While these do not concern life-threatening conditions, this gives an indication that the covid-19 pandemic has been attracting resources from the treatment of other conditions. While more ICUs and ventilators have been made available, the NHS may reach its capacity at the peak of the pandemic, which can affect patients suffering from other conditions. Furthermore, the lockdown may also have unintended health effects. Lack of social contact can affect mental health,4 and big events or disasters at the national level can have a similar impact.5 Staying at home can limit physical activity, which is associated with obesity6 and mental health.7 Furthermore, staying at home and bar and restaurant closure may affect other health-related behaviours, such as drinking, smoking and diet. There are also reports of a rise in domestic abuse,8 while the current financial and public health situation may also cause additional uncertainty and stress. [9] [10] Apart from the negative effects, there may also be some improvement in certain areas.