Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Jack Noonan
Title: Generic probabilistic modelling and non-homogeneity issues for the UK epidemic of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: gm1mb8w5_27
Snippet: Summarizing, the expected daily mortality curve is simply a suitably scaled version of I(t)/N of Figure 1 . The same is applied to the curves representing expected number of hospital beds and ventilators. The variability for the number deaths is naturally considerably higher than the variability for the numbers of required hospital beds and ventilators as the latter ones are correlated in view of the fact that each person occupies a bed (requires.....
Document: Summarizing, the expected daily mortality curve is simply a suitably scaled version of I(t)/N of Figure 1 . The same is applied to the curves representing expected number of hospital beds and ventilators. The variability for the number deaths is naturally considerably higher than the variability for the numbers of required hospital beds and ventilators as the latter ones are correlated in view of the fact that each person occupies a bed (requires a ventilator) for a few days in a row but dies only once.
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