Generic probabilistic modelling and non-homogeneity issues for the UK epidemic of COVID-19

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Jack Noonan

In Figure 8 we use similar scenario as for Figure 6 but we separate group G only mildly at the time when 10% of the population is infected. We make no call to general public for social distancing. The curve I G (t)/n is 'flattened' for the group G but in a considerably smaller degree than in the case of strong separation of G. Figures 9 and 10 illustrate the situation with mild and strong separation of people from G complemented with introduction of the social distancing for general public. Interestingly enough, the effect of social distancing for general public gives less benefit than even mild isolation of people from group G. Figure 11 illustrates the scenario with no call to the general public for social distancing but with strong separation of the people from G at at a later stage of epidemic, when 20% of the population is infected. The effect is similar to the one observed in Figures 6 and 7 except for the fact that the call for isolating the group G came slightly late.