Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Jack Noonan
Title: Generic probabilistic modelling and non-homogeneity issues for the UK epidemic of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: gm1mb8w5_78
Snippet: In Figures 12 and 13 we plot (using the same colours as in Figures 6 and 7 We can deduce from Figure 15 (taking into account the extra factor of hospital beds availability) that strong separation of 70+ old people alone would have reduced the expected number of death by at least the factor of 2. Another feature of the scenario with c = 0.25 is a roughly 50/50 split between the number of deaths in the 70+ and 70− groups......
Document: In Figures 12 and 13 we plot (using the same colours as in Figures 6 and 7 We can deduce from Figure 15 (taking into account the extra factor of hospital beds availability) that strong separation of 70+ old people alone would have reduced the expected number of death by at least the factor of 2. Another feature of the scenario with c = 0.25 is a roughly 50/50 split between the number of deaths in the 70+ and 70− groups.
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