A novel cohort analysis approach to determining the case fatality rate of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases

Charit S Narayanan

To execute our proposed cohort-based method for calculating the CFR during an 43 ongoing outbreak, we explicitly model the death rates using a growth function to 44 simulate multiple conditions. This is done by specifically altering time from illness to 45 death and the slope of the growth of deaths. Our approach has multiple advantages over 46 the other methods. We can identify and compare the CFR of each cohort as well as its 47 evolution over time. Also, we can calculate the CFR earlier in the stage of disease 48 development, especially if we know the time from infection to time of death. Our 49 method can help increase the accuracy of calculated CFR for both COVID-19 and 50 future viral diseases. This analysis will assist in furthering efforts to halt the spread of 51 COVID-19 and drive an informed, comprehensive approach towards counteracting its 52 spread. The range of CFR possibilities and onset-to-death intervals will also raise 53 awareness among the public so that the correct measures are taken.