Author: Bekker, A.; Yoo, K.; Arashi, M.
Title: Pitting the Gumbel and logistic growth models against one another to model COVID-19 spread Cord-id: as0w2ot3 Document date: 2020_5_26
ID: as0w2ot3
Snippet: In this paper, we investigate briefly the appropriateness of the widely used logistic growth curve modeling with focus on COVID-19 spread, from a data-driven perspective. Specifically, we suggest the Gumbel growth model for behaviour of COVID-19 cases in European countries in addition to the United States of America (US), for better detecting the growth and prediction. We provide a suitable fit and predict the growth of cases for some selected countries as illustration. Our contribution will sti
Document: In this paper, we investigate briefly the appropriateness of the widely used logistic growth curve modeling with focus on COVID-19 spread, from a data-driven perspective. Specifically, we suggest the Gumbel growth model for behaviour of COVID-19 cases in European countries in addition to the United States of America (US), for better detecting the growth and prediction. We provide a suitable fit and predict the growth of cases for some selected countries as illustration. Our contribution will stimulate the correct growth spread modeling for this pandemic outbreak.
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