Diagnostic Accuracy of Computed Tomography for Identifying Hospitalization in Patients with Suspected COVID-19

Morozov, Sergey P.; Reshetnikov, Roman V.; Gombolevskiy, Victor A.; Ledikhova, Natalia V.; Blokhin, Ivan A.; Kljashtorny, Vladislav G.; Mokienko, Olesya A.; Vladzymyrskyy, Anton V.

The controversy of computed tomography (CT) use in COVID-19 screening is associated with ambiguous characteristics of chest CT as a diagnostic test. The reported values of CT sensitivity and specificity calculated using RT-PCR as a reference standard vary widely. The objective of this study was to reevaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of CT using an alternative approach. This study included 973 symptomatic COVID-19 patients aged 42 $\pm$ 17 years, 56% females. We reviewed the disease dynamics between the initial and follow-up CT studies using a"CT0-4"grading system. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated as conditional probabilities that a patient's condition would improve or deteriorate relative to the initial CT study results. For the calculation of negative (NPV) and positive (PPV) predictive values, we estimated the COVID-19 prevalence in Moscow. We used several ARIMA and EST models with different parameters to fit the data on total cases of COVID-19 from March 6, 2020, to July 20, 2020, and forecast the incidence. The"CT0-4"grading scale demonstrated low sensitivity (28%) but high specificity (95%). The best statistical model for describing the pandemic in Moscow was ETS with multiplicative trend, error, and season type. According to our calculations, with the predicted prevalence of 2.1%, the values of NPV and PPV would be 98% and 10%, correspondingly. We associate the low sensitivity and PPV values with the small sample size of the patients with severe symptoms and non-optimal methodological setup for measuring these specific characteristics. The"CT0-4"grading scale was highly specific and predictive for identifying admissions to hospitals of COVID-19 patients. Despite the ambiguous accuracy, chest CT proved to be an effective practical tool for patient management during the pandemic, provided that the necessary infrastructure and human resources are available.