Hand-hygiene mitigation strategies against global disease spreading through the air transportation network

Christos Nicolaides; Demetris Avraam; Luis Cueto-Felgueroso; Marta C. González; Ruben Juanes

The conventional SIR model in epidemiology describes the reaction kinetics of an infection within a closed population 35 . According to the SIR model, each individual is considered as either susceptible (S), infected (I) or recovered (R). The sum of the compartments at any given time t is equal to the total population size (S(t) + I(t) + R(t) = N). The SIR reaction kinetics model two distinct processes: the infection process, S + I β − → 2I, where an infected individual transmits the infection to a susceptible individual with rate β , and the recovery process, I µ − → R, where an infected individual recover with rate µ (µ −1 is the average time required for an infected individual to recovers). The ratio R 0 = β /µ defines the basic reproductive number of the infection, denoting the average number of secondary infections an infected individual causes before it recovers. For a closed subpopulation the disease dies out exponentially fast when R 0 < 1, while in grows and potentially causes a pandemic for R 0 > 1.