Proposal of a new equation for estimating resting energy expenditure of acute kidney injury patients on dialysis: a machine learning approach

Ponce, Daniela; de Goes, Cassiana Regina; de Andrade, Luis Gustavo Modelli

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to develop a new predictive equation of resting energy expenditure (REE) for acute kidney injury patients (AKI) on dialysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out of 114 AKI patients, consecutively selected, on dialysis and mechanical ventilation, aged between 19 and 95 years. For construction of the predictive model, 80% of cases were randomly separated to training and 20% of unused cases to validation. Several machine learning models were tested in the training data: linear regression with stepwise, rpart, support vector machine with radial kernel, generalised boosting machine and random forest. The models were selected by ten-fold cross-validation and the performances evaluated by the root mean square error. RESULTS: There were 364 indirect calorimetry measurements in 114 patients, mean age of 60.65 ± 16.9 years and 68.4% were males. The average REE was 2081 ± 645 kcal. REE was positively correlated with C-reactive protein, minute volume (MV), expiratory positive airway pressure, serum urea, body mass index and inversely with age. The principal variables included in the selected model were age, body mass index, use of vasopressors, expiratory positive airway pressure, MV, C-reactive protein, temperature and serum urea. The final r-value in the validation set was 0.69. CONCLUSION: We propose a new predictive equation for estimating the REE of AKI patients on dialysis that uses a non-linear approach with better performance than actual models.