Healthcare and the Fight Against the Viral Threat as a New Direction of Economic Security and Sustainable Development: Experience 2020

Karanina, Elena V.; Magomadova, Tamilla L.; Piskaykina, Ekaterina S.; Maiorova, Irina A.

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to identify the impact of the fight against the viral threat as a new direction of economic security on the sustainability of economic systems, as well as to determine the prospects for the sustainable development of the economy depending on the level of health care as a key factor in the completion of the pandemic. Design/Methodology/Approach: The correlation analysis method determines the differences in morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 in the countries of the designated categories. The regression method determines the dependence of indicators of sustainable development on the level of development of health care. A forecast of health level change is made based on arithmetic mean and standard deviation. According to the forecast, possible health level values under different scenarios and consequences for sustainable development are determined. Findings: It has been proven that in the context of the 2020 pandemic, health care has received a new role related to the fight against the viral threat. Countries that have mobilized their health systems and stepped up the fight against the viral threat through the development of a vaccine show lower morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 compared to countries with developed health systems, but focused on a stable epidemiological situation. Originality/Value: It is justified that the best (optimistic) scenario for combating the viral threat in 2020 allows not only to maximize the development of health care (by 14.67%), but also provides benefits for sustainable development (an average increase in all indicators by 4.80%): an increase in competitiveness by 5.74%, GDP per capita by 30.55% and a sustainable development index by 5.53%. This opens up expanded opportunities for economic security in a new aspect related to health care as a fight against the viral threat.