Comparison of alternative models of human movement and the spread of disease

Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Bryan T. Grenfell; Cecile Viboud; Aaron A. King

190 Table 1 shows estimated parameters and likelihoods for each of the spatial interaction networks. To explore the drivers among model differences in fit, we therefore contrast 214 model predictions of disease import and export rates. Fig. 2 shows the mean predicted 215 export and import rates vs. population size for each of the models. The dependence of 216 mean export rate on population size contrasts somewhat among models ( Fig. 2A) , but 217 the importation rates follow similar patterns (Fig. 2B) . Despite their differences in 218 underlying mathematical equations, there must be more nuanced differences among the 219 models that contribute their relative fit/lack-of-fit. This begs the question: "What are 220