Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan
Title: Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: mipdahk4_100
Snippet: In Figures 22 and 23 , we use k M = 1, 3. The value k M = 3 is default while the value k M = 1 defines the exponential distribution for the period of infection in the case of mild disease and is equivalent to the corresponding assumption in SIR models. As the variance of the exponential distribution is larger than of the Erlang with k M = 3 (given the same means), the epidemic with k M = 1 runs longer and smoother......
Document: In Figures 22 and 23 , we use k M = 1, 3. The value k M = 3 is default while the value k M = 1 defines the exponential distribution for the period of infection in the case of mild disease and is equivalent to the corresponding assumption in SIR models. As the variance of the exponential distribution is larger than of the Erlang with k M = 3 (given the same means), the epidemic with k M = 1 runs longer and smoother.
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