Momentum managing epidemic spread and Bessel functions

Cherednik, Ivan

Starting with the power law for the total number of infections during the middle stages of epidemics, we propose differential equations describing the process of momentum epidemic management, which is a set of measures aimed at reducing the epidemic spread via timely response to the dynamic of the number of infections. In the most aggressive mode, the saturation of the number of infections can be achieved sufficiently quickly, though it can be not the end of the epidemic. The square root of the intensity of hard measures is qualitatively inversely proportional to the epidemic duration. We use the theory of Bessel functions. For Covid-19, they appeared surprisingly efficient for modeling the whole period of intensive spread, presumably including the late stages; we discuss the USA, UK, Austria, Israel and Sweden.