Excess Risk of COVID-19 to University Populations Resulting from In-Person Sporting Events

Johnson, S. S.; Jackson, K. C.; Mietchen, M. S.; Sbai, S.; Schwartz, E. J.; Lofgren, E.

Background: One of the consequences of COVID-19 has been the cancelation of in-person collegiate sporting events. We explore the impact of having in-person sports on COVID-19 transmission on a college campus, specifically the excess cases within the campus community can be anticipated. Methods: Using a stochastic compartmental model representing the interactions between the university community, we model the impact of transient influxes of visitors attending sporting events and ancillary activities (bars, dining out, etc.). We consider a number of scenarios, varying the extent to which visitors interact with the campus, the number of infectious visitors, and the extent to which the campus has controlled COVID-19 absent events. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis, exploring the model's outcomes over a wide range of uncertainty. Results: Events caused an increase in the number of cases among the campus community, ranging from a 25% increase in a scenario where the campus already had an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak and visitors had a low prevalence of COVID-19 and mixed lightly with the campus community to an 822% increase where the campus had controlled their COVID-19 outbreak and visitors had both a high prevalence of COVID-19 and mixed heavily with the campus community. The model was insensitive to parameter uncertainty, save for the duration a symptomatic individual was infectious. Conclusion: In-person sporting events represent a threat to the health of the campus community. This is the case even in circumstances where COVID-19 seems controlled both on-campus and among the larger population visitors are drawn from.