Act early, save lives: managing COVID-19 in Greece

Ilias, Gountas; Georgios, Hillas; Kyriakos, Souliotis

Abstract Objectives To assess the impact of social distancing interventions in Greece and to examine what would have happen if those interventions had not been implemented. Study Design A dynamic, discrete-time, stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. Methods The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use in Greece. Results If Greece had not implemented social distancing interventions, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed between 30 March and 4 April. The combined social distancing interventions and increase in ICU beds averted 4360 (95% credibility interval: 3050, 5700) deaths and prevented the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed. Conclusions The quick and accurate interventions of the Greek government limited the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak.