Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan

Summarizing, there are five parameters modelling the lock-down: t 2 = April 22, x = 0.9, R 1 = 1, R 2 = 2, c = 1/4. Figures 2 and 3 but computed for the case of intervention. The colour schemes in Figures 4 and 5 are exactly the same as in Figures 2 and 3 , respectively. The two grey lines 5 . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. We will study sensitivity of the curves I(t) and I G (t), plotted in Figures 4 and again in Figure 6 for the same parameters, with respect to all parameters of the model. In Figure 7 we plot average death numbers (purple for group G and green for the rest of the population) in the case of the inner London as explained at the end of Section 1.3. Note that these numbers do not take into account the important factor of hospital bed availability and various heterogeneities, as explained in [1] . The colour scheme in all figures below with even numbers is: