Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan

In Figures 12 and 13 , solid and dashed line styles (for blue/red colours) correspond to R 0 = 2.3 and R 0 = 2.7 respectively. Expected deaths tolls for R 0 = 2. In Figures 14 and 15 , we use x = 0.8 and x = 0.9. Expected deaths toll for x = 0.8 is 17.3(5.3+12)K. This is higher than 15(5.2+9.8)K for x = 0.9. The fact that the difference is significant is related to the larger number of death for x = 0.8 in the initial period of the epidemic. In Figure 14 , red and blue display the number of infected at time t for x = 0.8 for people from group G and the rest of population, respectively. Similarly, in Figure 15 the red and blue colours show the expected numbers of deaths in these two groups. Figures 14 and 15 show that the timing of the lock-down has serious effect on the development of the epidemic. Late call for a lock-down (when x = 0.8) helps to slow down the epidemic and guarantees its fast smooth decrease but does not safe as many people as, for example, the call with x = 0.9.