Forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in Top 15 countries in April 2020: ARIMA Model with Machine Learning Approach

Kumar, Pavan; Kalita, Himangshu; Patairiya, Shashikanta; Sharma, Yagya Datt; Nanda, Chintan; Rani, Meenu; Rahmani, Jamal; Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth

We here predicted some trajectories of COVID-19 in the coming days (until April 30, 2020) using the most advanced Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Our analysis predicted very frightening outcomes, which defines to worsen the conditions in Iran, entire Europe, especially Italy, Spain, and France. While South Korea, after the initial blast, has come to stability, the same goes for the COVID-19 origin country China with more positive recovery cases and confirm to remain stable. The United States of America (USA) will come as a surprise and going to become the epicenter for new cases during the mid-April 2020. Based on our predictions, public health officials should tailor aggressive interventions to grasp the power exponential growth, and rapid infection control measures at hospital levels are urgently needed to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.