Selected article for: "current trend and predicted number"
Author: Ziyue Liu; Wensheng Guo
Title: Government Responses Matter: Predicting Covid-19 cases in US under an empirical Bayesian time series framework
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: boa0n9dz_2
    Snippet: Existing Covid-19 forecasting are extrapolations into the future time [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] . Their validity relies on the crucial but unrealistic assumption that the future trajectories are completely determined by the history. This by design cannot incorporate government responses yet to come. Not surprisingly, these predictions can be off the target. For example, Fanelli and Piazza 7 predicted a maximum number of cases in Italy to be 1.....
    Document: Existing Covid-19 forecasting are extrapolations into the future time [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] . Their validity relies on the crucial but unrealistic assumption that the future trajectories are completely determined by the history. This by design cannot incorporate government responses yet to come. Not surprisingly, these predictions can be off the target. For example, Fanelli and Piazza 7 predicted a maximum number of cases in Italy to be 15,000, where the real cases have already multipled. Batista 8 predicted the pandemic should peak around Feb 9 th , 2020, but it shows no sign of slowing down into late-March, 2020. Zheng et al 9 predicted about 20,000 cases in South Korea, which is unlikely to happen given its current flat trend around 9,000. Models used in these forecasting are mainly the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models and its variants [5] [6] [7] [8] .

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