Author: Ola Brynildsrud; Vegard Eldholm
Title: High COVID-19 incidence among Norwegian travellers returned from Lombardy: implications for travel restrictions Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: 3wegrnyn_8
Snippet: As the number of diagnosed cases in Lombardy in the early days of the epidemic is clearly not representative of the true COVID-19 prevalence at the time, we used daily numbers of fatalities to estimate the true case numbers at the time. Based on the number of deaths reported in Lombardy on March 13th (146), and assuming an average of 20 days ( Jung et al. 2020 ) from infection to death for fatal cases and a case fatality ratio of 1% ( Famulare 20.....
Document: As the number of diagnosed cases in Lombardy in the early days of the epidemic is clearly not representative of the true COVID-19 prevalence at the time, we used daily numbers of fatalities to estimate the true case numbers at the time. Based on the number of deaths reported in Lombardy on March 13th (146), and assuming an average of 20 days ( Jung et al. 2020 ) from infection to death for fatal cases and a case fatality ratio of 1% ( Famulare 2020 ; Liu et al. 2020) , we estimate that the true number of new cases in Lombardy on February 22nd was ~14600, compared to 40 reported cases. This rough estimate suggests that as little as 1% of cases were detected.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- daily number and diagnose case: 1
- daily number and early day: 1, 2, 3
- daily number and epidemic early day: 1
- daily number and fatality daily number: 1, 2, 3
- daily number and fatality ratio: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
- daily number and new case: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- daily number and report case: 1, 2, 3
- death infection and epidemic early day: 1
- death infection and fatal case: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- death infection and fatal case death infection: 1
- death infection and fatality ratio: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
- death infection and new case: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- death infection and report case: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
- diagnose case and fatal case: 1
- diagnose case and fatality ratio: 1
- diagnose case and report case: 1, 2, 3, 4
- early day and epidemic early day: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
- early day and fatality ratio: 1
- early day and new case: 1, 2
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date