Selected article for: "fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio"
Author: Ola Brynildsrud; Vegard Eldholm
Title: High COVID-19 incidence among Norwegian travellers returned from Lombardy: implications for travel restrictions
  • Document date: 2020_3_23
    • ID: 3wegrnyn_8
    Snippet: As the number of diagnosed cases in Lombardy in the early days of the epidemic is clearly not representative of the true COVID-19 prevalence at the time, we used daily numbers of fatalities to estimate the true case numbers at the time. Based on the number of deaths reported in Lombardy on March 13th (146), and assuming an average of 20 days ( Jung et al. 2020 ) from infection to death for fatal cases and a case fatality ratio of 1% ( Famulare 20.....
    Document: As the number of diagnosed cases in Lombardy in the early days of the epidemic is clearly not representative of the true COVID-19 prevalence at the time, we used daily numbers of fatalities to estimate the true case numbers at the time. Based on the number of deaths reported in Lombardy on March 13th (146), and assuming an average of 20 days ( Jung et al. 2020 ) from infection to death for fatal cases and a case fatality ratio of 1% ( Famulare 2020 ; Liu et al. 2020) , we estimate that the true number of new cases in Lombardy on February 22nd was ~14600, compared to 40 reported cases. This rough estimate suggests that as little as 1% of cases were detected.

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