A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

Andrea Torneri; Pieter Jules Karel Libin; Joris Vanderlocht; Anne-Mieke Vandamme; Johan Neyts; Niel Hens

Where distributions are not reported, the parameters are assumed to be constant. In the last 68 column, when available, we report the references to the literature that justifies the choice of the 69 parameter value, or distribution, we use. 70 We assume infectious individuals to make, on average, between two and three effective contacts. nasal and throat swabs data. 7 The time to hospitalization is estimated from the data presented in 78 Backer et al. 10 We assume that the time to hospitalization coincides with the time of diagnosis. At with SARS-CoV-2, a contact tracing procedure is started. We assume that each contact in H i will 85 be traced back successfully with probability η. Depending on the considered scenario, traced-back 86 individuals will be monitored or tested. When individuals are found positive for SARS-CoV-2, they 87 will be put in quarantine/isolation. For certain scenarios, next to quarantine, we also inject infected 88 individuals with an antiviral drug (i.e., Remdesivir). 89 We assume that the test can detect infection after two days since infection. Traced individuals who 90 test negative the first time, are tested again after two days. The quarantine will result in a decreased 91 contact rate (i.e. imperfect isolation), λ q , while in case of perfect isolation the contact rate is set 92 to zero. Similarly, diagnosed individuals will also be quarantined: at home (mild symptoms), with 93 a decreased contact rate λ q , or in the hospital (severe symptoms), where we assume that perfect