A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

Andrea Torneri; Pieter Jules Karel Libin; Joris Vanderlocht; Anne-Mieke Vandamme; Johan Neyts; Niel Hens

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the Figure 9 : Final size distribution (left panel) and mean peak incidence for Scenario IAS (yellow), Scenario IBS (green) and Scenario IBTBS (blue) when the quarantine contact rate is λ q =0·25 λ and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals is 35%. We consider the same reproduction number for asymptomatic (R a 0 ) and symptomatic (R s 0 ) individuals: R a 0 = R s 0 = 2.5. In the left panel, for each scenario we report the probability that a simulation leads to a number of cases smaller than the 10% of the population (purple asterisks). In the right panel, together with the point estimates we report the 2·5% and 97·5 % percentiles. Figure 10 : Final size distribution (left panel) and mean peak incidence for Scenario IAS (yellow), Scenario IBS (green) and Scenario IBTBS (blue) when the quarantine contact rate is λ q =0·25 λ, R 0 =2·5 and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals is 35%. We consider the a reproductive number that is different for asymptomatic (R a 0 ) and symptomatic (R s 0 ) individuals: R s 0 = 2.5 and R a 0 = 0.55 · R s 0 . In the left panel, for each scenario we report the probability that a simulation leads to a number of cases smaller than the 10% of the population (purple asterisks). In the right panel, together with the point estimates we report the 2·5% and 97·5 % percentiles.