Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_11
Snippet: Accounting for these potential 'invisible' sources of transmission is important to determine the EO with confidence, irrespective of potential underreporting. The EO declaration phase starts the day after the outcome of the last case. In this phase, the probability of cases arising in the future is calculated for each day until a predefined probability threshold, here fixed at 5%, is reached......
Document: Accounting for these potential 'invisible' sources of transmission is important to determine the EO with confidence, irrespective of potential underreporting. The EO declaration phase starts the day after the outcome of the last case. In this phase, the probability of cases arising in the future is calculated for each day until a predefined probability threshold, here fixed at 5%, is reached.
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