Author: Liangde Xu; Jian Yuan; Yaru Zhang; Guosi Zhang; Fan Lu; Jianzhong Su; Jia Qu
Title: Highland of COVID-19 outside Hubei: epidemic characteristics, control and projections of Wenzhou, China Document date: 2020_2_29
ID: acmfhbtm_4
Snippet: In this epidemiologic and modelling study, we first gathered transmission data for 434 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the ongoing Wenzhou outbreak from the the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China and the Health Commission of Wenzhou by February 10, 2020. We then investigate a deterministic (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) SEIR compartmental model based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological .....
Document: In this epidemiologic and modelling study, we first gathered transmission data for 434 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the ongoing Wenzhou outbreak from the the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China and the Health Commission of Wenzhou by February 10, 2020. We then investigate a deterministic (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) SEIR compartmental model based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological status of the individuals, and the intervention measures to inferred the basic reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 and the transmission among Wenzhou and three prefecture-level cities. Finally, we forecasted and compared the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across Wenzhou (Southeastern), Shenzhen (Southern), Zhengzhou (Central) and Harbin (Northern), accounting for the effect of the Wenzhou quarantine implemented since Jan 27, 2020 and other interventions. see https://github.com/ZhangBuDiu/WZ_COVID-19 for R code, case data, and prepared datafiles.
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