Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_21
Snippet: We simulated the number of undetected cases in that period using a probabilistic method, under several underreporting assumptions. Using Bayes theorem, an inverse binomial problem was solved to calculate the probability distribution of the total number of cases arising during the onset-to-outcome delay period, given the reporting rate and zero cases detected during that period. The probability mass function of the binomial distribution is describ.....
Document: We simulated the number of undetected cases in that period using a probabilistic method, under several underreporting assumptions. Using Bayes theorem, an inverse binomial problem was solved to calculate the probability distribution of the total number of cases arising during the onset-to-outcome delay period, given the reporting rate and zero cases detected during that period. The probability mass function of the binomial distribution is described as
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