Author: Garcia-Garcia, D.; Vigo, M. I.; Fonfria, E. S.; Herrador, Z.; Navarro, M.; Bordehore, C.
Title: Retrospective Methodology to Estimate Daily Infections from Deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case study Cord-id: bpvhtszb Document date: 2020_6_23
ID: bpvhtszb
Snippet: The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. The methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable infections were between 34 and 42 times more than th
Document: The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. The methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable infections were between 34 and 42 times more than the official ones on 14 March, when national government decreed the national lockdown. The latter had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first infection in Spain may have occurred on 11 January 2020, around 40 days before it was officially reported. In summary, we state that our methodology is adequate to reinterpret official daily infections, being more accurate in magnitude and dates
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