Predictive Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission: Mathematical Modeling Study

Anitha, K.

A novel COVID-19 caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2 was identified at China in December 2019, and it was declared as global pandemic on 11th March 2020 by the World Health Organization. In India on 30th January 2020, the first COVID-19 case was confirmed at Kerala. As of 6th June 2020, 6,702,662 cases have been reported in India even though stringent nationwide lockdown has been implemented. It is essential to identify the rate of disease transmission and its characterization. ICMR stated that 80% of COVID patients in India are without symptoms. In that case, we should focus on identifying the optimal attributes that will give the rate of transmission of this disease. Statistical machine learning is a powerful tool to fight against COVID-19 which gives the potential models for identifying the pattern of this disease, predictive analysis, and rate of transmission. This chapter aims to construct the predictive model to identify the severity of this disease transmission and also find the topographical spread of the contagion.