Non-pharmaceutical interventions and inoculation rate shape SARS-COV-2 vaccination campaign success

Galanti, M.; Pei, S.; Yamana, T. K.; Angulo, F. J.; Charos, A.; Khan, F.; Shea, K.; Swerdlow, D.; Shaman, J.

Nearly one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the first SARS-COV-2 vaccines received emergency use authorization and vaccination campaigns began. A number of factors can reduce the averted burden of cases and deaths due to vaccination. Here, we use a dynamic model, parametrized with Bayesian inference methods, to assess the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccine administration and uptake rates on infections and deaths averted in the United States. We estimate that high compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions could avert more than 60% of infections and 70% of deaths during the period of vaccine administration, and that increasing the vaccination rate from 5 to 11 million people per week could increase the averted burden by more than one third. These findings underscore the importance of maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and increasing vaccine administration rates.