The estimate of infected individuals of the 2019-Novel Coronavirus in South Korea by incoming international students from the countries of risk of 2019-Novel Coronavirus: a simulation study

Ryu, Sukhyun; Ali, Sheikh Taslim; Lim, Jun-sik; Chun, Byung Chul

BackgroundIn March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from the country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection will arrive in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in a home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. MethodsTo estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and perform a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. ResultsUnder the home-quarantine program, the total number of the infected individuals would reach 24-53 from March 17-March 20, 50-86 from March 18- March 16, and 234- 343 from March 4- March 23 with the arrival of 0.1%, 0.2%, and 1% of pre-infectious individuals, in Seoul, South Korea, respectively. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. ConclusionTo mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine are warranted along with other containment policies.