COVID-19 incidence trends between April and June 2020: A global analysis

Amanor-Boadu, V.; Ross, K.

The study sought to investigate how the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 have evolved in the most recent three months across the world, and what insights the trends may provide about the second half of the pandemic's first year using a situation analysis approach based on national income, temperature, trade intensity with China, and location defined by longitude and latitude. The study confirmed the negative relationship between COVID-19 cases and temperature. It contributed to the resolution of the conflicting results about latitude after organizing it into a categorical variable instead of its continuous form. This approach works because the average temperature in the 15 degrees S to 15 degrees N region remains similar to the average temperatures in both the Above 15 degrees N region and the Below 15 degrees S region during their summer months because the 15 degrees S to 15 degrees N region does not experience the marked seasonal changes in temperature. Given the negative association between temperature and case numbers, this suggests that countries in the 15 degrees S to 15 degrees N region might continue exhibiting the low numbers they have thus far exhibited through the second half of this year, even as numbers climb in the Below 15 degrees S region. To succeed, their policymakers must control importation of the disease by implementing effective testing, quarantining, and contact tracing for people entering their borders. Policymakers in countries Below 15 degrees S region may manage their inherent risks by applying lessons learned from countries in the Above 15 degrees N region during these past months. Such preventative measures may allow the world to avoid the drastic lockdown policies and facilitate rapid global economic recovery from this pandemic.