Author: Yi Li; Xianhong Yin; Meng Liang; Xiaoyu Liu; Meng Hao; Yi Wang
Title: A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China Document date: 2020_2_23
ID: goqgv2cc_18
Snippet: ) " ，and estimate that is 0.904( <1) which shows that the diagnosis number of COVID-19 patients will decrease. It is very effective in controlling the spread of infectious diseases that the Chinese health authorities have taken appropriate health care actions. If the outbreak is no longer controlled, the value of will be around 1 indicating that the outbreak will wreak havoc. We obtain this elegant formula with both curve plot visualization and.....
Document: ) " ，and estimate that is 0.904( <1) which shows that the diagnosis number of COVID-19 patients will decrease. It is very effective in controlling the spread of infectious diseases that the Chinese health authorities have taken appropriate health care actions. If the outbreak is no longer controlled, the value of will be around 1 indicating that the outbreak will wreak havoc. We obtain this elegant formula with both curve plot visualization and mathematical intuition. We plot ln (Ni/Ni-1) against time (Fig.3 ). First few observations showed a linear decay of spread rate. However, later data points realized us at Feb 4 that it is an exponential decay. Later data points further confirm our model.
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