What is the market potential for on-demand services as a train station access mode?

Gervzinivc, N.; Cats, O.; Oort, N. van; Hoogendoorn-Lanser, S.; Hoogendoorn, S.

Ride-hailing and other on-demand mobility services are often proposed as a solution for improving the accessibility of public transport by offering first/last mile connectivity. We study the potential of using on-demand services to improve train station access by means of a three-step sequential stated preference survey. We compare the preferences for on-demand services with the bicycle, car and public transport for accessing two alternative train stations at different access distances. We estimate a joint access mode and train station choice model. By estimating a latent class choice model, we uncover five distinct segments in the population. We describe the classes based on their stated preferences, travel behaviour, attitudes towards new mobility and their socio-demographic characteristics. The two largest classes, accounting for over half of the sample, are the most likely to adopt on-demand services. Having an average willingness-to-pay, they would choose these services for longer access distances, competing mainly with the car and local public transport. Applying the model estimates, we observe that while on-demand services mainly compete with public transportation (obtaining most of its travellers from it), they are not able to fully substitute a public transport service for train station access, as many users would switch to cycling or driving a car, rather than opting for the on-demand service.