Author: Boudrioua, M. S.; Boudrioua, A.
Title: Predicting the COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria using the SIR model Cord-id: qiez6adj Document date: 2020_4_29
ID: qiez6adj
Snippet: The aim of this study is to predict the daily infected cases with Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Algeria. We apply the SIR model on data from 25 February 2020 to 29 April 2020 for the prediction. We estimate the parameters of our model by minimizing the negative log likelihood function using the Nelder- Mead method. We found that the epidemic peak reach July month and the COVID-19 disease will disappear in the month of October. We suggest that Algerian authorities need to implement a strict containme
Document: The aim of this study is to predict the daily infected cases with Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Algeria. We apply the SIR model on data from 25 February 2020 to 29 April 2020 for the prediction. We estimate the parameters of our model by minimizing the negative log likelihood function using the Nelder- Mead method. We found that the epidemic peak reach July month and the COVID-19 disease will disappear in the month of October. We suggest that Algerian authorities need to implement a strict containment strategy over a long period to effectively reduce the epidemic size.
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