Selected article for: "age group and SARS transmission"

Author: Cai, J.; Yang, J.; Deng, X.; Peng, C.; Chen, X.; Wu, Q.; Liu, H.; Zhang, J.; Zheng, W.; Zou, J.; Zhao, Z.; Ajelli, M.; Yu, H.
Title: Projecting the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out: a modelling study
  • Cord-id: jtwtw9uc
  • Document date: 2021_10_17
  • ID: jtwtw9uc
    Snippet: SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. In China, over 85% of individuals aged [≥]12 years have been vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages), while children aged 0-11 years are currently not eligible for vaccination (as of September 2021). The aim of this work is to assess whether the importation of Delta variant infections will shift the COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an
    Document: SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. In China, over 85% of individuals aged [≥]12 years have been vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages), while children aged 0-11 years are currently not eligible for vaccination (as of September 2021). The aim of this work is to assess whether the importation of Delta variant infections will shift the COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics to simulate the epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged [≥]12 years (as of September 2021), and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could lead to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 97% across the currently eligible age groups. The symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalisation are projected to shift towards children and young adolescents, with 13% of symptomatic infections and 30% of hospitalisations occurring in those aged 0-11 years. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3-11 years is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalisations within this age group (54% and 81%, respectively), but would have a low impact on protecting infants (aged 0-2 years). Our findings highlight the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by simultaneously extending the target population and elevating vaccine effectiveness.

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