Author: Read, Jonathan M; Bridgen, Jessica RE; Cummings, Derek AT; Ho, Antonia; Jewell, Chris P
Title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Cord-id: mt8h4rk5 Document date: 2020_1_24
ID: mt8h4rk5
Snippet: Since first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95%CI, 2.39-4.13); 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing; Wuhan case ascertainment of 5.0% (3.6-7.4); 21022 (11090-33490) total infections in Wuhan 1 to 22 January.
Document: Since first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95%CI, 2.39-4.13); 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing; Wuhan case ascertainment of 5.0% (3.6-7.4); 21022 (11090-33490) total infections in Wuhan 1 to 22 January.
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