Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics

Christopher Bronk Ramsey

The model presented here is a purely theoretical one, based on estimated parameters. It is intended to stimulate further modelling and data collection work which can be used to test the conclusions reached here before they are used to inform policy. However, it is certainly safe to conclude that to reduce R eff it is very important to reduce the interaction levels of the most interactive individuals. This is also something seen in simulation and network-based models, but the very simple probability-based model here serves to illustrate why this is case.