Author: Christopher Bronk Ramsey
Title: Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: dcmcog6l_42
Snippet: The above framework has been developed into a simple dynamic step-wise model. The population is divided into 800 quantiles, each with a different t value, covering ±4σ. Initially these are seeded with a probability of infection set for the particular model run. Using the t values for each quantile the expected number of potential infections can be calculated directly for the population as a whole. These are then partitioned to the population in.....
Document: The above framework has been developed into a simple dynamic step-wise model. The population is divided into 800 quantiles, each with a different t value, covering ±4σ. Initially these are seeded with a probability of infection set for the particular model run. Using the t values for each quantile the expected number of potential infections can be calculated directly for the population as a whole. These are then partitioned to the population in proportion to the t values of all individuals. The actual infection probability for each quantile is then reduced by the proportion of that quantile which has already been infected.
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