Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics

Christopher Bronk Ramsey

Interestingly if no reduction in activity of the key worker group is made, it is very difficult to stabilise the situation, even with the majority of the population in lockdown (see Figure 6 ). If they remain at normal interaction levels, the epidemic will take off in that group and spread to the rest, with over 20% of this group infected by the end (and almost all of the most interactive individuals). The overall mortality rate is much higher at about 0.001 with much of that, inevitably, in the key worker group. This finding is also true under the mitigation and suppression strategies and underlines the need for some social distancing for this group (combined with personal protection and testing). The main risk in managing an epidemic, especially if initial measures are not brought in fast enough, is that the key workers become over-stretched and if anything their interaction levels rise: this positive feedback effect is something to be avoided if at all possible.