Topological epidemic model: Theoretical insight into underlying networks.

Hirata, Yoshito

Although there are various models of epidemic diseases, there are a few individual-based models that can guide susceptible individuals on how they should behave in a pandemic without its appropriate treatment. Such a model would be ideal for the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Thus, here, we propose a topological model of an epidemic disease, which can take into account various types of interventions through a time-dependent contact network. Based on this model, we show that there is a maximum allowed number of persons one can see each day for each person so that we can suppress the epidemic spread. Reducing the number of persons to see for the hub persons is a key countermeasure for the current COVID-19 pandemic.