Author: Christopher Bronk Ramsey
Title: Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: dcmcog6l_31
Snippet: Putting some numbers on this from the estimates above, if the maximum interaction any individual can have is limited to 1σ above the median level in the log normal distribution this will reduce R eff by a factor of 0.51, so almost enough on its own to reduce the an R0 of 2.4 to an R eff of 1. If the median contact was 5 person hrs/day this would imply an upper limit of 15.8 person hrs/day. A limit set at the median value would reduce R eff by a .....
Document: Putting some numbers on this from the estimates above, if the maximum interaction any individual can have is limited to 1σ above the median level in the log normal distribution this will reduce R eff by a factor of 0.51, so almost enough on its own to reduce the an R0 of 2.4 to an R eff of 1. If the median contact was 5 person hrs/day this would imply an upper limit of 15.8 person hrs/day. A limit set at the median value would reduce R eff by a factor of 0.20, certainly low enough to eliminate the disease, and somewhere between these two would probably be the optimum (see scenarios below).
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