Mathematical Analysis of the Effects of Controls on Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

K. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy; Bornaa, C. S.; Seidu, Baba; Jin, Zhen

COVID-19, an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), starting from Wuhan city of China, plagued the world in the later part of 2019. We developed a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of the disease with two categories of the Susceptibles (ie immigrant Susceptibles and local Susceptible). The model is shown to have a globally stable disease-free equilibrium point whenever the basic reproduction number R 0 is less than unity. The endemic equilibrium is also shown to be globally stable for R 0 > 1 under some conditions. The spread of the disease is also shown to be highly sensitive to use of PPEs and personal hygiene ( d ) , transmission probability ( β ) , average number of contacts of infected person per unit time (day) ( c ) , the rate at which the exposed develop clinical symptoms ( δ ) and the rate of recovery ( ρ ) . Numerical simulation of the model is also done to illustrate the analytical results established.