Overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020

Pei, S.; Yamana, T. K.; Kandula, S.; Galanti, M.; Shaman, J.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems and economies throughout the world during 2020 and was particularly devastating for the United States. Many of epidemiological features that produced observed rates of morbidity and mortality have not been thoroughly assessed. Here we use a data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the pandemic at county-scale in the United States during 2020 and estimate critical, time-varying epidemiological properties underpinning the dynamics of the virus. The pandemic in the US during 2020 was characterized by an overall ascertainment rate of 21.6% (95% credible interval (CI):18.9-25.5%). Population susceptibility at year end was 68.8% (63.4-75.3%), indicating roughly one third of the US population had been infected. Community infectious rates, the percentage of people harboring a contagious infection, rose above 0.8% (0.6-1.0%) before the end of the year, and were as high as 2.4% in some major metropolitan areas. In contrast, the infection fatality rate fell to 0.3% by year end; however, community control of transmission, estimated from trends of the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, slackened during successive pandemic waves. In the coming months, as vaccines are distributed and administered and new more transmissible virus variants emerge and spread, greater use of non-pharmaceutical interventions will be needed.