Role of Latent Tuberculosis Infections in Reduced COVID-19 Mortality: Evidence from an Instrumental Variable Method Analysis

Takahashi, Harutaka

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been significant interest in the potential protective effect of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine against COVID-19 mortality. This effect has been attributed to innate immune responses induced by BCG vaccination. However, these studies ignore an important fact: according to World Health Organization estimates, about a quarter of the world's population may have latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), a condition in which there is no evidence of clinically active tuberculosis but persistent immune responses are stimulated by Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens. Thus, both LTBI and BCG induce lifelong immunity and may provide immunological protection against COVID-19. In this study, the relationship between LTBI and reduced COVID-19 mortality was analyzed using the instrumental variable method. The results showed with robust statistical support that LTBI was also associated with reduced COVID-19 mortality.