Prevalence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the city of São Paulo, 2020–2021

de Albuquerque, José Olimpio Moura; Kamioka, Gabriela Akemi; Madalosso, Geraldine; Costa, Selma Anequini; Ferreira, Paula Bisordi; Pino, Francisco Alberto; Sato, Ana Paula Sayuri; de Carvalho, Ana Carolina Aguiar; Amorim, Ana Beatriz Pagliaro; Aires, Caroline Cotrim; Kataoka, Ana Paula Arruda Geraldes; Savani, Elisa San Martin Mouriz; Bessa, Thirsa Alvares Franco; de Aguiar, Breno Souza; Failla, Marcelo Antunes; dos Santos, Edson Aparecido; Brito, Edjane Maria Torreão; dos Santos, Maria Cristina Honório; Silva, Solange Maria Saboia e; Caldeira, Luiz Artur Vieira; Zamarco, Luiz Carlos; Fonseca, Sandra Maria Sabino; Lima, Marcia Maria de Cerqueira; Marques, Ivanilda Argenau; da Silva, Fabiana Érica Vilanova; Glasser, Paula Regina; Burihan, Patrícia Carla Piragibe Ramos; Cavazzana, Cinthya Luzia; de Mello, Debora Silva; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Nishio, Fernando Yoshiki; Kian, Fernanda Miyashiro; Braga, Elza de Santana; Bertelli, Nilza Maria Piassi; Fracini, Wagner; Gonçalves, Marcelo Dell Áquila; Zular, Paulete Secco; Piva, Regiane de Santana; Masi, Eduardo

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the evolution of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection among residents aged 18 years or over in the municipality of São Paulo. METHODS: This is a population-based household survey conducted every 15 days, between June and September 2020, and January and February 2021. In total, the study comprised 11 phases. The presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was identified in venous blood using a lateral flow test, Wondfo Biotech. In the last phase, the researchers combined it with an immunoenzymatic test, Euroimmun. The participants also answered a semi-structured questionnaire on sociodemographic and economic factors, and on social distancing measures. Prevalence estimates and the 95% confidence interval were estimated according to regions, Human Development Index, sex, age group, ethnicity, education, income, and variables associated with risk or prevention of infection. To compare the frequencies among the categories of each variable, the chi-square test with Rao-Scott correction was used, considering a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: In total, 23,397 individuals were interviewed and had their samples collected. The estimated prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 9.7% (95%CI: 7.9–11.8%) to 25.0% (95%CI: 21.7–28.7). The prevalence of individuals with antibodies against the virus was higher among black and brown people, people with lower schooling and income, and among residents of regions with lower Human Development Index. The lowest prevalences were associated with recommended measures of disease protection. The proportion of asymptomatic infection was 45.1%. CONCLUSION: The estimated prevalence of the infection was lower than the cumulative incidence variation, except for the last phase of the study. The differences in prevalence estimates observed among subpopulations showed social inequality as a risk of infection. The lower prevalence observed among those who could follow prevention measures reinforce the need to maintain social distancing measures as a way to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection.