COVID-19 Outbreaks in Refugee Camps. A simulation study.

HERNANDEZ-SUAREZ, C. M.; Verme, P.; Radyakin, S.; Murillo-Zamora, E.

We built a mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and analyze it using both a deterministic and a stochastic approach. We used this model to project the burden of the disease in refugee camps characterized by peculiar demographic characteristics and a high level of deprivation, including lack of medical facilities and personnel, as well as limited possibility to implement containment and quarantine measures. Most of the parameters in our model were adapted from published literature but we used our own estimates of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$ as well as the lethality by age group and gender. We projected the burden in terms of number of infections, number of deaths and number of bed-days in hospitalization and intensive care, among others. We conclude that the harsh conditions of refugee camps combined with a high share of young people leads to a relatively mild scenario for the burden of the disease.