A Queueing-Theoretic Framework for Evaluating Transmission Risks in Service Facilities During a Pandemic

Kang, Kang; Doroudi, Sherwin; Delasay, Mohammad; Wickeham, Alexander

We propose a new modeling framework for evaluating the risk of disease transmission during a pandemic in small-scale settings driven by stochasticity in the arrival and service processes, i.e., congestion-prone confined-space service facilities, such as grocery stores. We propose a novel metric ($R_0^{\mathsf{sys}}$) inspired by $R_0$, the"basic reproduction number"concept from epidemiology, which measures the transmissibility of infectious diseases. We derive the $R_0^{\mathsf{sys}}$ metric for various queueing models of service facilities by leveraging a novel queueing-theoretic notion: sojourn time overlaps. We showcase how our metric can be used to explore the efficacy of a variety of interventions aimed at curbing the spread of disease inside service facilities. Specifically, we focus on some prevalent interventions employed during the COVID-19 pandemic: limiting the occupancy of service facilities, protecting high-risk customers (via prioritization or designated time windows), and increasing the service speed (or limiting patronage duration). We discuss a variety of directions for adapting our transmission model to incorporate some more nuanced features of disease transmission, including heterogeneity in the population immunity level, varying levels of mask usage, and spatial considerations in disease transmission.