60. New Prognostic Markers for COVID-19 Disease

Ramahi, Amr; Chan, Kok Hoe; Prabhakar, Laxminarayan; Farouji, Iyad; Thimmareddygari, Divya; DaCosta, Theodore R; Chittamuri, Sahithi; Patel, Kinjal D; Poudel, Bishnu; Omour, Bader I Al; Paige, Amy; Joseph, Ormena; Patel, Khamoshi; Bhavsar, Nilam; Shaaban, Hamid S; Slim, Jihad

BACKGROUND: A few COVID-19 related retrospective studies have established that older age, elevated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and decreased lymphocyte-CRP ratio (LCR) were associated with worse outcome. Herein, we aim to identify new prognostic markers associated with mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective hospital cohort study on patients ≥ 18 years old with confirmed COVID-19, who were admitted to our hospital between 03/15/2020 and 05/25/2020. Study individuals were recruited if they had a complete CBC profile and inflammatory markers such as CRP, ferritin, D-dimer and LDH, as well as a well-defined clinical outcomes (discharged alive or expired). Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were reviewed and retrieved. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were employed to identify prognostic markers associated with mortality. RESULTS: Out of the 344 confirmed COVID-19 hospitalized patients during the study period, 31 who did not have a complete blood profile were excluded; 303 patients were included in the study, 89 (29%) expired, and 214 (71%) were discharged alive. Demographic analysis was tabulated in Table 1. The univariate analysis showed a significant association of death with absolute neutrophil count (ANC, p=0.022), NLR (p=002), neutrophil-monocyte ratio (NMR, p=< 0.0001), LCR (p=0.007), lymphocyte-LDH ratio (LLR, p=< 0.0001), lymphocyte-D-dimer ratio (LDR, p=< 0.0001), lymphocyte-ferritin ratio (LFR, p=< 0.0001), and platelets (p=0.037) with mortality. With multivariable logistic regression analysis, the only values that had an odds of survival were high LDR (odds ratio [OR] 1.763; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20–2.69), and a high LFR (OR 1.136, CI 1.01–1.34). We further build up a model which can predict >85% mortality in our cohorts with the utilization of D-dimer (>500 ng/ml), Ferritin (>200 ng/ml), LDR (< 1.6), LFR (< 4) and ANC (>2.5). This new model has a ROC of 0.68 (p< 0.0001). [Image: see text] CONCLUSION: This retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 suggests LDR and LFR as potential independent prognostic indicators. A new model with combination of D-dimer, Ferritin, LDR, LFR and ANC, was able to predict >85% mortality in our cohort with ROC of 0.68, it will need to be validated in a prospective cohort study. DISCLOSURES: Jihad Slim, MD, Abbvie (Speaker’s Bureau)Gilead (Speaker’s Bureau)Jansen (Speaker’s Bureau)Merck (Speaker’s Bureau)ViiV (Speaker’s Bureau)