How to evaluate the success of the COVID-19 measures implemented by the Norwegian government by analyzing changes in doubling time

Biljana Stangeland

Strict measures implemented in many countries around the world, in order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, have put strains on the economy and immobilized the normal functioning of society. Never before in peace time has the modern world seen widespread travel bans, closed borders, home working, and shutdowns of schools and kindergartens. But do these measures successfully slow down and reduce the spread of COVID-19? Is it possible to follow infection trends in real-time to help government officials make well-informed decisions in order to contain the pandemic? Here we describe a method that allows close monitoring of trends that otherwise may not be apparent based on data from standard statistics of cases. By measuring the increase in doubling time, an indicator of how quickly the number of cases is multiplying, we can gain important insights from the COVID-19 epidemiologic data.