An exploratory Integrated Moving Average Time Series Model of the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in six (6) significantly impacted Countries

Pascarella, Joseph; Pascarella, Elaina

The 2019 Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a single-stranded RNA virus that has threatened the lives of humans all over the globe. Government officials, policy makers and public health officials have been scrambling and struggling to flatten the curve to decelerate the prevalence and spread of COVID-19 given the significant economic destruction of the spread of the virus. Most flatten the curve models are based on Compartmental Models. This preliminary research is based on six (6) selected countries significantly impacted by COVID-19 and endeavors to build a new model based on moving averages lagged at different time periods to better hone in on the time the COVID-19 begins to decelerate using the date of first reported case and date of first reported death. This new model, the Consistent Deceleration Model (CDM) is based on each individual countrys date of Peak Increase in Mortality Rate (PINC MR) and the Moving Average since the peak increase in mortality rate (MA POSTINC). The CDM can be utilized of one of many quantitative tools to determine the strength of the deceleration of an infectious outbreak.